Probability Elicitation and Calibration in a Research & Development Portfolio: A 13-year case study
11-22-11
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Dr. Jay Anderson of Eli Lilly shares results from a 13-year case study of using probabilities to quantify uncertainty in R&D projects, in a webinar moderated by SmartOrg CEO David Matheson and hosted by the Society of Decision Professionals. In particular, Dr. Anderson compares research outcomes with probability assessments of those outcomes (made prior to starting the research), showing a dramatic correlation. This evidence invites organizations to think hard about how they currently tap into the knowledge of their members for decision-making.
Source: The Society of Decision Professionals, Slides
2 Responses to Probability Elicitation and Calibration in a Research & Development Portfolio: A 13-year case study
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What is the possibility of getting a copy of the slides for this presentation from Jay? Also, I have a question: I stepped away from the playback a few times, so I may have missed this, but I didn’t see anything about the process by which the project success probabilities were elicited. Could Jay provide that information? Thanks.
John, I just added the slides to this post. On the process of elicitation, we are planning to put a video out soon, so stay posted.