Portfolio Game

designed by David Matheson 

The rules of the game are simple. You must pick 5 projects for your portfolio out of a set of 10 projects.

The projects can be of four types:

  • Pearls: High probability of success and high value if successful
  • Oysters: Low probability of success and high value if successful
  • Bread and Butter: High probability of success and low value if successful
  • White Elephants: Low probability of success and low value if successful. (What is a white elephant?)

We will simulate each project using two dice. The first dice will determine whether the project is successful or not.

First Dice: Simulate Success/Failure of Project

The black die yields a number from 1-4. If it yields a 1, the project will be a failure. Otherwise it will be a success. The probability of success in this case is taken to be 3/4. The black die will be rolled for Pearls and Bread and Butter projects.
The white die yields a number from 1-4. If it yields a 1, the project will be a success. Otherwise it will be a failure. The probability of success in this case is taken to be 1/4. The white die will be rolled for Oysters and White Elephants.

The second dice will determine what the value of the project is, given that it was successful (as determined by the first dice).

Second Dice: Simulate Value of Project Given Success

This 20-sided die simulates the value for Pearls and Oysters.
This 6-sided die simulates the value for Bread and Butter and White Elephant projects.

Different combinations of dice result if four different types of projects for you to consider for your portfolio:

Game Tasks

You will do the following:

  • Select five projects into your portfolio. These are the projects you will fund.
  • Roll the dice for the unfunded projects to see how they turn out.
  • Roll the dice for the funded projects to see how they turn out.
  • Pick no more than five projects (from the funded and unfunded list) that you’d like to have in your portfolio, given that you now know the outcomes.
  • Submit the results of the simulation.

 

Start Playing

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