designed by David Matheson
The rules of the game are simple. You must pick 5 projects for your portfolio out of a set of 10 projects.
The projects can be of four types:
- Pearls: High probability of success and high value if successful
- Oysters: Low probability of success and high value if successful
- Bread and Butter: High probability of success and low value if successful
- White Elephants: Low probability of success and low value if successful. (What is a white elephant?)
We will simulate each project using two dice. The first dice will determine whether the project is successful or not.
|First Dice: Simulate Success/Failure of Project
The second dice will determine what the value of the project is, given that it was successful (as determined by the first dice).
|Second Dice: Simulate Value of Project Given Success
Different combinations of dice result if four different types of projects for you to consider for your portfolio:
You will do the following:
- Select five projects into your portfolio. These are the projects you will fund.
- Roll the dice for the unfunded projects to see how they turn out.
- Roll the dice for the funded projects to see how they turn out.
- Pick no more than five projects (from the funded and unfunded list) that you’d like to have in your portfolio, given that you now know the outcomes.
- Submit the results of the simulation.