The Reason Why You Never Want to Make Decisions Based Strictly on Historical Data
By David Matheson 
3 min read
The Pitfalls of the “Scorekeeper” Approach to Innovation
The assumption that sound business judgment can be verified by gathering information from ongoing activities is a prevalent one. Organizations frequently find themselves in a situation where they think that they have made wise choices since they have:
- An authoritative source that supports the information;
- Defendable data that leads to a plausible forecast for how events will play out;
- A simple plan that works given the past;
- A powerful champion who can galvanize the group.
Why Standard Business Cases Fail to Predict Success
Consider introducing a new product as a more particular business example. Typically, a company will:
- Get market and customer data from analysts with a good reputation and customer-needs research;
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Develop defendable assumptions for price, market share, cost, timeline, etc. and put them in a business case;
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Create a business plan and milestones for executing to win;
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Rally people around the vision and excite them about making it work.
Even though the majority of this is positive, 70% of product debuts still fail. Why do these well-supported plans fail? The past does not provide enough information to accurately forecast the future.
Adopting a Risk-Adjusted Framework for Decision Making
You must pinpoint the crucial areas where what you don’t know could affect you if you want to make wise decisions about the future. Making smarter selections is ensured by identifying and assessing your regions of greatest risk.
It doesn’t end there; as you continue to work on your product, you must continually check on your risk areas to make sure they are reducing and that your original decision is still sound.
Discover how SmartOrg makes it simple for businesses to assess their top product potential and promote optimal growth.
