Probability Elicitation and Calibration in a Research & Development Portfolio: A 13-year case study

Dr. Jay Anderson of Eli Lilly shares results from a 13-year case study of using probabilities to quantify uncertainty in R&D projects, in a webinar moderated by SmartOrg CEO David Matheson and hosted by the Society of Decision Professionals. In particular, Dr. Anderson compares research outcomes with probability assessments of those outcomes (made prior to starting the research), showing a dramatic correlation. This evidence invites organizations to think hard about how they currently tap into the knowledge of their members for decision-making.

eliLillyStudy

The chart above shows projects bucketed by their probability assessment. In a stunning result, there is an almost straight line band correlating the outcome with the probability assessments. The full presentation is hosted by the Society of Decision Professionals.